The Parti Québécois won the most seats in Quebec’s provincial election held on 5 October, ending eight years of rule by the Coalition Avenir Québec. Projections by Canadian broadcasters indicate it will form a minority government rather than a majority in the 125-plus seat National Assembly. Party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is set to become premier. The result is a dramatic recovery for a party that won only three seats in the 2022 election, and it is the PQ’s first return to government since its 2012 to 2014 term.
Plamondon has pledged to hold a third referendum on Quebec leaving Canada during his first term, but has signalled he would wait until after Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. Quebecers rejected sovereignty in referendums in 1980 and in 1995, the latter by a razor-thin margin. Political scientists note that support for independence currently sits at only around 30 percent, which is low by historical standards. Because the PQ lacks a majority, it will need support from other parties to pass legislation and survive confidence votes, which constrains any push toward secession.
The win nonetheless revives a debate that many in Canada believed was dormant, and it will test relations with Ottawa. Markets and federal politicians will be watching how quickly the new government moves on language, identity and sovereignty-related promises.