India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation announced that the economy grew 7.8 percent in the April-to-June quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, beating the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate of 7 percent. Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg disputed the figure in a television interview, claiming the real growth rate was 2.6 percent because the government inflated the headline number by revising down the prior year’s nominal GDP figure. Cornell University economist Kaushik Basu called Garg’s analysis credible, while noting that India’s investment rate has fallen from about 38 percent of GDP in the mid-2000s to roughly 34 percent today.
The government and several prominent economists forcefully rejected the 2.6 percent claim. Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian called the claim a demonstration of economic ignorance, stating that Garg had wrongly compared nominal GDP figures from two different statistical series with different base years, and noted that the new series updates its base year to reflect newer, faster-growing sectors in line with international recommendations. Sanjeev Sanyal added that no serious economist doubts the 7.8 percent figure, pointing to strong car sales and corporate profitability as independent confirmation of robust growth, while HDFC Bank economist Sakshi Gupta attributed the strong quarter to domestic consumption, government spending, investment, and exports.
The debate also drew political reactions, with Congress leaders Jairam Ramesh and Sam Pitroda arguing that the growth figures mask weak private investment, sluggish consumer confidence, and a currency nearing 100 to the US dollar. HDFC Bank subsequently raised its full-year growth forecast to 7 percent from 6.8 percent.